Saturday, March 06, 2004
Paul Konerko
I suppose anyone reading this has noticed that Paul Konerko, viewed as a solid 2nd tier fantasy 1B going into the 2003 season, is ranked well below the 2nd tier for 2004. And you already know the reason for that drop -- Konerko sucked at the plate last year (except for July and August when he averaged passable numbers in all 5 categories) , and dragged more than one fantasy owner down with him. So what happened to him, and is he worth bothering with in 12 team leagues this year?
What happened seems to be pretty simple, actually. I looked at his '03 stats month by month. Konerko had some bad luck at the plate early in the season when the hits weren't falling in for him. I looked his numbers for the seasons from 1999-2003, and last year's line tells me that after the bad luck he lost confidence in his swing, started taking more pitches, walking more and striking out less. When he did swing, he was either tentative or trying to be too fine and to guide the ball off the bat. The result was a drop in power which was reflected in batting average and on-base percentage as wells as in slugging percentage. You can see it for yourself in the numbers at the bottom of this post.
Is Konerko worth drafting this year? He should be, because the guy can hit. It all depends on whether or not he's regained his confidence. Watch him during spring training, read the box scores. If he's taking big swings and has some mighty strikeouts, and he's driving the ball for doubles and a few homers when he makes contact, feel free to draft him with the bottom of the second tier. If he's still using the bat as a white cane, avoid him.
|
What happened seems to be pretty simple, actually. I looked at his '03 stats month by month. Konerko had some bad luck at the plate early in the season when the hits weren't falling in for him. I looked his numbers for the seasons from 1999-2003, and last year's line tells me that after the bad luck he lost confidence in his swing, started taking more pitches, walking more and striking out less. When he did swing, he was either tentative or trying to be too fine and to guide the ball off the bat. The result was a drop in power which was reflected in batting average and on-base percentage as wells as in slugging percentage. You can see it for yourself in the numbers at the bottom of this post.
Is Konerko worth drafting this year? He should be, because the guy can hit. It all depends on whether or not he's regained his confidence. Watch him during spring training, read the box scores. If he's taking big swings and has some mighty strikeouts, and he's driving the ball for doubles and a few homers when he makes contact, feel free to draft him with the bottom of the second tier. If he's still using the bat as a white cane, avoid him.
Season TPA H 2B 3B HR BB SO bb/pa k/pa bb rate k rate
1999 564 151 31 4 24 45 68 0.080 0.121 12.533 8.294
2000 586 156 31 1 21 47 72 0.080 0.123 12.468 8.139
2001 650 164 35 0 32 54 89 0.083 0.137 12.037 7.303
2002 630 173 30 0 27 44 72 0.070 0.114 14.318 8.750
2003 495 104 19 0 18 43 50 0.087 0.101 11.512 9.900
total 2925 748 146 5 122 233 351 0.080 0.120 12.554 8.333
Season h/pa 2b/pa 3b/pa hr/pa h rate 2b rate 3b rate hr rate xbh/pa xbh rate Avg OBP
1999 0.268 0.055 0.007 0.043 3.735 18.194 141.0 23.500 0.391 9.559 0.294 0.352
2000 0.266 0.053 0.002 0.036 3.756 18.903 586.0 27.905 0.340 11.057 0.298 0.363
2001 0.252 0.054 0.000 0.049 3.963 18.571 20.313 0.409 9.701 0.282 0.349
2002 0.275 0.048 0.000 0.043 3.642 21.000 23.333 0.329 11.053 0.304 0.359
2003 0.210 0.038 0.000 0.036 4.760 26.053 27.500 0.356 13.378 0.234 0.305
total 0.256 0.050 0.002 0.042 3.910 20.034 585.0 23.975 0.365 10.714 0.282 0.346
First base Rankings
Okay, what we have here are players eligible at first base who might conceivably be of some use to you this season. The rankings are based on their perfomance over the last three seasons, except for Mark Teixeira and Nick Johnson. I've moved them up because of their extreme potential (Hafner's also been moved up, though his upside is nowhere near as high as the other two). I've separated these guys into the first tier, the second tier, and the rest. Giambi falls out of my first tier because of his knee and eye problems last season. The forecast column is my subjective expectation of how these guys will perform during the 2004 season relative to their position on this list. No comment is no change. Up is minor movement. Up+ means I think these guys could move into the next tier (the two ?'s reflect my level of confidence in the +). Dn is down, dn- the bottom falling out (if it hasn't already).
Note: Brad Fullmer's absence from this list is an oversight. He played 19 games at first last year and does qualify at first base in Yahoo leagues. I'd rank him ahead of Olerud and Conine, though I expect Johnson and Teixeira will outhit him.
|
Note: Brad Fullmer's absence from this list is an oversight. He played 19 games at first last year and does qualify at first base in Yahoo leagues. I'd rank him ahead of Olerud and Conine, though I expect Johnson and Teixeira will outhit him.
Monday, March 01, 2004
Draft Strategy
When going into a fantasy draft, it's always best to have an idea of some specific goals. "Best player available with each pick" is a good, but broad, pursuit, and can leave you with holes to fill and weaknesses for your opponents to exploit. Also, if you're anything like me, it also leaves you vulnerable to fool yourself into making brash decisions. Like the time last season I took Ichiro with the first pick of the 3rd round because I suddenly panicked due to OBP being included in the league and my not having taken that into account on my draft board. And he's not even a great OBP guy!
The lesson I learned from that, as well as from another draft I did last season with somewhat more success, is that you want to identify a couple of very specific and detail-oriented things you want to accomplish in the draft. Using that draft as a basis for the discussion, I will cleverly disguise horn-tooting as a list of fantasy draft pointers.
The best place to start is by identifying your own strengths. Where do you think you measure ahead of the competition? In last year's AL-only draft I was pretty sure I could pick out a group of sleeping outfielders that could be drafted late but would still produce at a high level. What position or area are you most familiar with? Take advantage of it.
Look closely at your league's structure. Are there any uncommon stats being counted? Anywhere you can focus to outmanage your fellow team owners? What position is the thinnest? Move those guys up your board accordingly.
Watch your opponents' teams as they draft. Any obvious holes? If you have a spare pick or two, draft to fill your opponents' holes, then hold them over the fire in post-draft trades.
Especially in deeper leagues, once you have a basic concept, the dominoes will start to fall into place as you develop an overall strategy. My entire draft in the AL-only league last season was based on the basic concept that I could hold off on drafting any outfielders until real late; I chose to make my infield my top priority and to try to pick up one stud pitcher early. I think I drafted 8th out of 9, and I took Chavez and then Garciappara with my first two picks and Hudson and Todd Walker in rounds 3 and 4. Everybody else is piling on the high-profile sluggers and aces. I ended up having a pretty huge problem on the pitching side -- I ended up taking Rodrigo Lopez as my #2 (ugh) -- but the rest of my strategy worked to perfection. I chose Trot Nixon, Vernon Wells, and Aubrey Huff as my starting OFs and I dominated the offensive categories for most of the season due to the combination of those three guys all having breakout years together with my infield's consistent production.
The reason I talk about that is because 1) I'm still rather proud of myself, and 2) I hope to be able to duplicate that success in the future by focusing on what I did right. Okay, so Danys Baez wasn't the closing machine I envisioned and I got real lucky with Mike MacDougal (that reminds me of another point to make), but the point stands: figure out where you're already ahead of the game and press your advantage.
And this is universally true: Draft closers late. Last year guys like MacDougal and Baez were going in the 20s. Pick up three guys like that and I guarantee that at least one will be a stud closer. In 2002 it was Guardado and Mike Williams -- guys that were available in the 20s in virtually every draft that put up top-5 numbers. On your closer draft board, make sure you get 3 out of the group you have ranked between 20-25 and you'll thank me.
|
The lesson I learned from that, as well as from another draft I did last season with somewhat more success, is that you want to identify a couple of very specific and detail-oriented things you want to accomplish in the draft. Using that draft as a basis for the discussion, I will cleverly disguise horn-tooting as a list of fantasy draft pointers.
Especially in deeper leagues, once you have a basic concept, the dominoes will start to fall into place as you develop an overall strategy. My entire draft in the AL-only league last season was based on the basic concept that I could hold off on drafting any outfielders until real late; I chose to make my infield my top priority and to try to pick up one stud pitcher early. I think I drafted 8th out of 9, and I took Chavez and then Garciappara with my first two picks and Hudson and Todd Walker in rounds 3 and 4. Everybody else is piling on the high-profile sluggers and aces. I ended up having a pretty huge problem on the pitching side -- I ended up taking Rodrigo Lopez as my #2 (ugh) -- but the rest of my strategy worked to perfection. I chose Trot Nixon, Vernon Wells, and Aubrey Huff as my starting OFs and I dominated the offensive categories for most of the season due to the combination of those three guys all having breakout years together with my infield's consistent production.
The reason I talk about that is because 1) I'm still rather proud of myself, and 2) I hope to be able to duplicate that success in the future by focusing on what I did right. Okay, so Danys Baez wasn't the closing machine I envisioned and I got real lucky with Mike MacDougal (that reminds me of another point to make), but the point stands: figure out where you're already ahead of the game and press your advantage.
Pitching focus: AL West
Man, has it really been this long? Gotta get on this.
So it looks like John's more of a stathead than I am; I understand that stuff and love to read pretty technical statistical analysis but doing actual work with the numbers myself tends to fall under my personal category of 'too much work.' Which, as you get to know me better, you'll find tends to pretty closely approach all-encompassing.
But enough about me. Let's talk baseball. I'll leave the scientifical ranking-style stuff to John for now; my first thought was to do some quick hits on a team-by-team basis, starting with a focus on the pitching staff. It's a start, anyway, and I don't wanna fall too far behind on content in here. I'll go division by division, I think, and see where that leads me.
Starting here at home with the AL West. A lot to cover here, and a lot of changes in direction.
The Oakland Athletics will maintain their dominance on the mound. 1-3 they can go toe to toe with anybody, and 1-5 they're only rivalled by Boston. I'll come clean with an embarrassing fact here and tell you that last year my one single ironclad no-doubt-about-this-one preseason prediction was that the White Sox would win the AL Central by 10 games or more (as a matter of fact, I'm fairly sure that I had a bet with somebody or other about this on the sdmb (I also had one about Jamie Moyer which I was also wrong about), but I won't be the one to go dig that up). I've got another one coming on right now.
Tim Hudson will be a strong Cy Young contender in 2004. Top 4 in the voting, easily. He's going to have a huge year. Game for game in 2003 he was as good as or better than anybody in the league, and was a horrible victim of bad luck and poor run support that cost him, literally, 5 wins or more (and on a personal note, if he had gotten the same support in his starts as his rotation-mates did in the first half, I'd have run away with that AL-only league from the getgo). People talk about the Big Three, but Hudson will emerge as the clear ace of the crew this season.
I'm worried about Barry Zito. I've heard that his velocity (not his forte to begin with) is down and his curveball isn't as demoralizing to hitters as it once was. He tailed off quite a bit at the end of 2003 and wasn't as effective as you'd hope in the playoffs. I see a dropoff coming for him.
I could say the same about Mark Mulder. A lot of questions remain for me about his bizarre hip fracture or whatever it was that sidelined him around August of last year. We'll see if he can return to form.
Mark Redman is underrated. And is almost certainly among the top #4 starters in the majors, if not the best himself. He should thrive in this environment (and in the spaaacious Oakland Coliseum).
Rich Harden is supposedly for real. I don't think we've seen enough yet to know for sure, but he was certainly a success at AAA. Being given the fifth starter role in his second season with those rotation-mates is fairly low-pressure, but then again he'll start a lot of games where giving up 4 runs will be enough to earn him an L, and this team may be in the do-or-die year for the Beane era. We'll see how he handles it, but physically he certainly seems to have the weapons he needs. One mark in his favor from a fantasy perspective is that Ken Macha is saying Harden won't get the typical 5th starter treatment; he'll pitch all his scheduled starts.
Chad Bradford has been getting a lot of publicity lately. It's beyond me why the A's thought they needed to pay Arthur Rhodes to close games for them when they've got this guy in the wings because he'll command closer money before too long anyway, so why not groom him for the role and bump his value? I'm not familiar with his contract status so maybe that's where the answer lies. But take it from me, he will continue to baffle hitters whether he's setting up or closing -- and I have a hunch he'll be doing a good bit of the latter in 2004.
The aforementioned Arthur Rhodes just isn't that great. Okay, lefty closer, but his splits are actually pretty even and he doesn't have that nasty out pitch that you look for. He's going to be asked to protect a lot of short leads and I'm not sure how well he's going to do outside of the setup role... The A's are stacked with lefties out of the pen, also...
Like Ricardo Rincon, who for some reason I thought was out of Oakland this season but is still listed with them on their team site. He's good, and if Inherited Runners Scoring is counted in your league, mark him up there at the top of your list.
The Anaheim Angels made some big splashes in the offseason with a couple of high-profile rotation acquisitions to add to their steamy collection of young arms.
Before I say anything else I need to point out their addition by subtraction -- they've acquired enough starters to finally push Aaron Sele off the depth chart. Do not draft this guy.
I've always liked Bartolo Colon. With this kind of lineup behind him you've gotta love the guy to go for 20 wins, and he's always capable of striking out 200. I guess there are fitness questions, but he wears his weight well and has never seemed to get slow down the stretch. Off the top of my head he's an easy top-10 AL starter. I've got my reservations that he's going to save this team's season, though.
Speaking of reservations, that's what I'm hereby christening Kelvim "reservations" Escobar. His numbers were pretty good in the Toronto rotation last year, but in a very limited sample size, and they're paying him top dollar. I'd hold off on him in your draft, or better yet just say "hmm" when he's inevitably snapped up by one of your overeager draftmates who already took Jeter and Sheffield too early and is now desperate for pitching in the 5th round to take him and leave it at that.
On the other hand, I like Jarrod Washburn to quietly put together another excellent season. I get the sense about this guy that he likes to pitch in relative obscurity, and as an incumbent on a team where all the focus will be on the newcomers I think he will thrive. Great sleeper, if you can call him that.
John Lackey and Ramon Ortiz both have a lot of potential, and either could easily turn out to win 17 or so at a sub-3.50 clip. Ortiz in particular has the ability to strike out about 9 per 9. These two are like my Jon Garland/Dan Wright twofer from last season except they're younger. Okay, and better.
Troy Percival is old. Somebody will snap him up way too soon and overpay for his saves. I'm not sure he's as reliable as he once was, except in the sense that he can be relied on to miss about a month all together with visits to the DL. The Angels can easily afford to miss him (on the diamond anyway, on the ledger sheet he's making what, $7m this year? yeesh), but you probably can't.
Not, that is, unless you also have a couple of guys like Brendan Donnelly, Ben Weber, and Francisco Rodriguez on your roster. All three of these guys are easily worth a flyer in a deep, AL-only, or saves-intensive league, as they all have a strong shot to save 10 this season or substantially more if anything goes wrong. Even without the saves they're all superb setup guys that will keep your cumulative stats down and your counting stats up, far outdistancing 90% of the starters out there on an inning-by-inning basis.
The Seattle Mariners only have a couple of pitchers that I like, and they're not the guys that are making money.
I maintain that Freddy Garcia just needs one more peek behind the curtain to totally blow up. I know we all noticed how desperately the M's wanted to move him somewhere, anywhere this offseason. I think they know what the rest of us only suspect. It's fork time in Freddy Garciaville. Do not draft this guy.
Same goes for Jamie Moyer. I won't put it in such strong terms, since he started last year's ASG and all, but he smacks of Kurt Warner Syndrome to me and I'd lay odds that the expiration date on his deal is fast approaching if not past.
Joel Pineiro and Gil Meche are both serious pitchers, though. I expect good things out of both of these guys, both this season and well into the future. I'm marking them both down as very solid mid-range sleepers (well, whether they're sleeping or not depends on your competition of course).
Kaz Sasaki is gone, and everybody in Marinerland is breathing a deep sigh of relief (well, everybody excepting anybody in their front office, because the Mariners front office is insane).
I just breathe a sigh of resignation that they brought in Everyday Eddie Guardado to close in his stead. How good does Shigetoshi Hasegawa have to be, and for how long, before he gets some recognition? The guy is unfadeable. And Guardado's modest success since he defaulted into the closer role in Minnesota brings him the payday? Bah. You've gotta draft Guardado just because he'll get the save opps, but salt away Hasegawa for a rainy day just in case. Oh yeah, and because of his 1.50 ERA and 1.08 WHIP last season. He doesn't strike anybody out, but he'll give you some nice innings.
Also, supposedly, in the mix to close in 2004 are Rafael Soriano and Julio Mateo. Two more guys to keep an eye on late in your draft, they've both got talent and flesh out what I think is easily the other best bullpen in the AL, along with Anaheim's.
Annnnd then we've got the Texas Rangers. They are in bad, bad shape on this side of the ball. As usual.
I mean, while it's sad when your two best pitchers are John Thomson and Ismael Valdes, it's so much sadder when they're both gone a season later -- Thomson to slot in as Atlanta's #3, maybe #4 starter, and Valdes to hang around San Diego and set a good example for David Wells.
To replace them Texas signed -- sigh -- Kenny Rogers (need I say it -- don't draft this guy) and thuggish ruggish Jeff Nelson, who should be above average in his setup role and will probably parlay his Hitler-but-blond mustache into a half-dozen saves to boot.
Lone bright spot -- Francisco Cordero looked very good down the stretch as their closer last year, but who knows how many opps he'll get in 2004.
(okay, second possible bright spot -- if they can sign on one more tired and overpaid journeyman in the Rogers mold, that means Chan Ho Park doesn't have to start).
That took longer than I thought. I'm eager to get into the rest of the divisions but I've got to get to sleep. Let's quickly review what we've learned:
2004 AL West SP rankings (subject to change):
1. Hudson
2. Colon
3. Mulder
4. Zito
5. Washburn
6. Redman
7. Moyer
8. Escobar
9. Harden
10. Pineiro (Meche is real close; so is Ortiz)
(and even with only 4 teams, and the Rangers not counting, you could easily put that group up against any other division's top 10)
2004 AL West CL rankings
1. Guardado (though it pains me to do it)
2. Cordero
3. Rhodes
4. Percival
5. Bradford/Donnelly
2004 AL West RP rankings
1. Bradford/Donnelly
2. Weber
3-7. Hasegawa, R. Soriano, F. Rodriguez, Mateo, Nelson
|
So it looks like John's more of a stathead than I am; I understand that stuff and love to read pretty technical statistical analysis but doing actual work with the numbers myself tends to fall under my personal category of 'too much work.' Which, as you get to know me better, you'll find tends to pretty closely approach all-encompassing.
But enough about me. Let's talk baseball. I'll leave the scientifical ranking-style stuff to John for now; my first thought was to do some quick hits on a team-by-team basis, starting with a focus on the pitching staff. It's a start, anyway, and I don't wanna fall too far behind on content in here. I'll go division by division, I think, and see where that leads me.
Starting here at home with the AL West. A lot to cover here, and a lot of changes in direction.
The Oakland Athletics will maintain their dominance on the mound. 1-3 they can go toe to toe with anybody, and 1-5 they're only rivalled by Boston. I'll come clean with an embarrassing fact here and tell you that last year my one single ironclad no-doubt-about-this-one preseason prediction was that the White Sox would win the AL Central by 10 games or more (as a matter of fact, I'm fairly sure that I had a bet with somebody or other about this on the sdmb (I also had one about Jamie Moyer which I was also wrong about), but I won't be the one to go dig that up). I've got another one coming on right now.
I could say the same about Mark Mulder. A lot of questions remain for me about his bizarre hip fracture or whatever it was that sidelined him around August of last year. We'll see if he can return to form.
The Anaheim Angels made some big splashes in the offseason with a couple of high-profile rotation acquisitions to add to their steamy collection of young arms.
The Seattle Mariners only have a couple of pitchers that I like, and they're not the guys that are making money.
Annnnd then we've got the Texas Rangers. They are in bad, bad shape on this side of the ball. As usual.
(okay, second possible bright spot -- if they can sign on one more tired and overpaid journeyman in the Rogers mold, that means Chan Ho Park doesn't have to start).
That took longer than I thought. I'm eager to get into the rest of the divisions but I've got to get to sleep. Let's quickly review what we've learned:
2004 AL West SP rankings (subject to change):
1. Hudson
2. Colon
3. Mulder
4. Zito
5. Washburn
6. Redman
7. Moyer
8. Escobar
9. Harden
10. Pineiro (Meche is real close; so is Ortiz)
(and even with only 4 teams, and the Rangers not counting, you could easily put that group up against any other division's top 10)
2004 AL West CL rankings
1. Guardado (though it pains me to do it)
2. Cordero
3. Rhodes
4. Percival
5. Bradford/Donnelly
2004 AL West RP rankings
1. Bradford/Donnelly
2. Weber
3-7. Hasegawa, R. Soriano, F. Rodriguez, Mateo, Nelson
